Global EV sales are surging, while the U.S. stalls out

The International Energy Agency (IEA) just cut its 2030 forecast for U.S. plug-in car sales—from over 55% down to just 20% [¹]. Meanwhile, the agency now expects EVs and plug-in hybrids to make up over 80% of sales in China and nearly 60% in Europe [¹].

This isn’t just a policy story—it’s a strategic one.

Photo: Xinhua

Policy signals shape private investment. And while global competitors are building the systems needed to scale EV adoption today, the U.S. is sending mixed messages. EV leaders here are betting on long-term moonshots. Their international counterparts are focused on near-term execution.

Look no further than Tesla and BYD. Tesla is doubling down on autonomy and robotics—technologies still constrained by regulation and technical complexity. BYD, by contrast, is focused on integration, infrastructure, and global reach. And it’s working. In Q1 2025, BYD sold 416,388 BEVs—surpassing Tesla’s 386,810 [²]—and more than doubled its net income to $1.26 billion while achieving 36% revenue growth [³]. That’s not a fluke—it’s the result of years of investment in domestic supply chains, affordable models, and charging access.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is actively undercutting the very policy tools that helped EVs gain traction. The Inflation Reduction Act’s $7,500 consumer tax credit is under threat [¹].

Billions in public EV charging infrastructure funds have been frozen [¹]. Tailpipe emissions rules are being weakened, and efforts are underway to revoke California’s authority to set EV mandates—rules that 13 other states follow [¹].

At the same time, the U.S. is imposing steep new tariffs on Chinese EVs—raising import duties to 100% as part of a broader trade action [⁴]. The intent may be to shield domestic automakers, but protectionism without a domestic scaling strategy is self-defeating. BYD doesn’t need the U.S. to grow. It’s expanding aggressively in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Europe—markets where affordability and infrastructure win over moonshot bets [⁵][⁶].

This is more than a climate issue. It’s an industrial one. The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) estimates that repealing the IRA would slash U.S. EV sales by 1.1 million units in 2030 and cost 130,000 jobs across manufacturing, batteries, and charging [⁷].

The irony? The technology is here. The challenge is deployment. We’re not falling behind because our EVs are bad—but because we keep treating them like niche tech, not critical infrastructure.

If we want to compete, we need to act like it. That means preserving consumer incentives. Funding charging where it’s actually needed. And encouraging U.S. automakers to build for scale—not just for a future that’s always a decade away.

The rest of the world isn’t waiting. And we’re already behind. Sources

1. International Energy Agency, Global EV Outlook 2025 (via InsideEVs)

2. Tesla Q1 2025 Vehicle Production and Deliveries Report

3. BYD Q1 2025 Earnings via Wall Street Journal

4. Reuters, “U.S. Raises Tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles to 100%” (2024)

5. Reuters, “BYD to Expand EV Sales in Latin America and Southeast Asia”

6. Nikkei Asia, “BYD Opens First EV Plant in Thailand, Eyes Regional Growth”

7. ICCT, Impacts of Repealing the Inflation Reduction Act on EV Adoption (2025)